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September Market Recap
As expected, the Fed cut the Fed
Funds Rate by 25 bps to a range of
4.00-4.25% at the conclusion of the
September FOMC meeting. There
was only one dissenting vote from
Stephen Miran, the newest FOMC
voting member and technically still
a member of the White House staff,
who voted for a 50-bps cut.
Michelle Bowman and Chris Waller,
who dissented in the July FOMC
meeting as they prefer faster rate
cuts, voted for the 25-bps cut.
Other voting members, many of
whom prefer the wait-and-see
approach, also voted for the 25-bps
cut.
The major concern before the
September FOMC meeting was that
there could potentially be a three-
way disagreement on the rate
decision (no cut, 25-bps cut, and
50-bps cut), which last happened
during September 2019 FOMC
meeting with three dissenting
votes. With Fed independence and
unity now under close scrutiny, this
could potentially cause market
turmoil. The surprisingly smooth
FOMC meeting outcome is a much-
needed relief for Chairman Powell
and the Fed.
Surprisingly Smooth FOMC Meeting Outcome
Data from Bloomberg as of September 30
th
, 2025.
3.85%
3.66%
3.56%
3.46%
3.40%
3.27%
3.19%
3.11%
3.08%
3.03%
10/29/2025 12/10/2025 01/28/2026 03/18/2026 04/29/2026 06/17/2026 07/29/2026 09/16/2026 10/28/2026 12/09/2026
Implied Federal Funds Rate
20251003-4872948
